REAL PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN GETTING STARTED



By Joseph P. Tartaro



	If nothing else, the national political party conventions

finally seem to have begun to focus voters on the idea that they will

be picking a President and Congress in about eight weeks. The

candidates and political operatives may always start running half-way

between the quadrennial Presidential elections when they announce for

New Hampshire's primary and the Iowa caucuses, but most Americans

really don't tune in until after the Labor Day preceding the actual

balloting.



	Just a few weeks ago, even professional political reporters 

seemed bored, especially since polls showed Clinton-Gore with a huge

lead over Dole-?, and Dole was seemingly stirring little excitement

anywhere.  Indeed, some pundits, thought Dole was doing so badly as

the GOP's presumptive candidate earlier this summer that they felt he

had written off such big states as California and New York, and could

have adversely affected some congressional races.  the so-called

contest between Ross Perot and Richard Lamm for the Reform Party

didn't seem to generate much suspense either.  And after the brief

flurry of media attention that followed the Libertarian Party

nomination of Harry Browne and Jo Jorgensen, that ticket also fell

into the public doldrums.



	None of this overlooks the fact that there are many people who

have been avidly tuned in to political happenings since late 1994.  It

is just that, like it or not, the vast majority of the electorate has

been yawning at the beach or in their backyards most of this summer.

You could tell that the public hadn't gotten serious yet by the

continuing scarcity of bumper stickers and yard signs, and by the fact

that most people found it hard to stay interested i presidential

political discussions for more than a minute or two.  In part, this

has been a measure of how uncommitted people were to any of the

candidates.



	All the while, it seemed that despite a lack of wide or

enthusiastic support even among Democrats, the election was Clinton's

to lose.



	Then, just before the Republican convention in San Diego, Bob

Dole started to make headlines.  He made a 15% tax cut the centerpiece

of his election campaign, followed up by first declaring the "assault

weapons" issue dead, and saying that we should focus on moving-up the

effective date for instant check on all gun purchases.  Then said he

would, like Clinton, veto repeal of the ban.  While the public and

media were digesting these points, Dole caught almost everyone by

surprise when he picked former Buffalo Bills quarterback, former

nineterm New York congressman, and former Bush Administration Housing

and Urban Development Secretary Jack Kemp as his vice presidential

running mate.  Dole and Kemp had served together in Congress, had

been opponents during the 1988 presidential primaries, and had not

been considered friends.  Kemp, while well-known among the Republican

faithful among whom he was a much-sought dinner speaker and important

fund-raiser, was not that widely recognized nationwide, except perhaps

as the guru of tax cuts.  Kemp and Sen. William Roth of Delaware had

been co-authors fo the Reagan Administration "supply side" Kemp-Roth

tax cut.



	More about Kemp another time, and on the cover of this issue.

With the Kemp selection and introduction in dole's hometown of

Russell, KS, on the eve of the San Diego convention, Dole breathed

new excitement into the majority of delegates and re-energized a

faltering campaign.  At the artfully scripted convention itself,

Kemp's speech fired up the troops and Dole built on that by giving

one of his best addresses to date, even if he was short on details.

 From California, the Dole-Kemp team visited Denver, Springfield, IL,

Buffalo and Pittsburgh.  It quickly became evident that the Dole-Kemp

ticket was not writing off California or New York, both states where

Kemp had strong ties.  The Buffalo visit on Aug. 11 included Dole-Kemp

families participating in the Catholic mass in the city's cathedral

(neither is a Catholic), a hastily arranged rally at the old

University of Buffalo Football Stadium which drew a crowd of over 

10,000, and a brief visit to a Pulaski Day parade in Cheektowaga.

	Suddenly, the Dole-Kemp campaign had come alive.  In the days 

that followed the convention an media headlines, polls showed the

ticket had garnered a bigger that usual bounce among the electorate.

On Aug. 20, Associated Press reported that a CBS-New York Times poll

of 856 registered voters showed Dole cutting Clinton's lead from a

poll a week earlier from 58-28% to 49-37%; a CNN-USA Today-Gallup

survey of 1,006 registered voters showed a switch from Clinton 52% - 

Dole 30% to Clinton-Gore 49%, Dole-Kemp 41%, and an ABC News poll of

1,022 registered voters jumping from 51-32% to 44-41%.



		POLLING BUMPS



	While polls in August do not tell you what might happen in 

November, they do measure a lift at the moment for the GOP ticket.

Next week when the Democrats hold their convention in Chicago, the

Clinton-Gore ticket should also get a bounce.  How big at this point

is uncertain.  While we hear that Sarah Brady will be at the Dem

gathering, it will be interesting how much bounce she helps win for

history's most anti-gun President.  Either way, the campaigns are now

on the more and the public will begin choosing up sides, with the

decision finally going to the candidates who score best with the

voters outside their traditional party and ideological bases.



	Sandwich between the GOP and Democratic conventions, the

Reform Party held a convention of sorts and on Aug. 11 in Valley

Forge, PA, Ross Perot accepted the nomination of his party.  Two

curious things about the Perot candidacy.  First, he still hasn't

named a running mate as this is written on Aug. 21, and, second, the

three polls cited above show him losing two points, five points, and

one point, respectively, as Dole was gaining and Clinton losing

ground.



	The polls, of course, are not reflecting what is happening

with third party candidates like Browne and the Green Party's Ralph

Nader.  If eighter gets into the presidential debates, especially

Browne, it should really open up the campaign discussion on the

issues.



	Like many Americans, I'll be watching Clinton and Sarah next

week in Chicago.  When they bring down the curtain there, the real

presidential campaign will finally have started, and I'll be following

that, too.  From a standpoint of legal gun-ownership and all civil

liberties, this may be one of the most important elections in our

history.