Hindsight from The New Gun Week November 1, 1998
Election Hangs on Voter Intensity
by Joseph P. Tartaro
Executive EditorTo some extent all elections turn on intensity, the level of voter determination for support or opposition for a given party, candidates or issues.
This year, key Senate and House races and governorships may turn on the intensity of voters who actually go to the polls and cast their votes. Normally, in a non-presidential election, voter turnout is substantially lower than it is in the quadrennial White House sweepstakes. But this may prove to be an abnormal year, indicating that there may be a larger turnout than usual, or that even more voters will shrug off their rights and responsibilities.
The Clinton factor is just one fly in the election ointment. It hangs over this election, and no one is sure what effect it will have.
Will liberal Democrats and other Clinton supporters be so incensed that Republicans have dared to raise the question of impeachment that those Democrats will turn out in unusually high numbers to thrash the GOP?
Will conservative Republicans throng to the polls to send Clinton a message and reward the GOP for bold action in the face of constant badgering by the Clinton defense team in the media?
And what of the independents? Will they consider their ballot an opportunity to express their views on the Clinton scandal and help swing the vote toward one party or another?Other Issues
Other issues of national and local import can also help push the vote one way or the other.
Early polling had suggested that voters would decide the fate of governors, senators, representatives and state lawmakers on the basis of local issues. For years, surveys have indicated that while voters tend to hold Congress as a whole in low regard, voters in most areas seem to believe their lawmakers-especially incumbents-are doing a pretty good job. This may have to do with the voters' perception of what the elected official has done for his or her district or state. How much bacon did they bring home?
People tend to vote bread and butter economic issues that affect their lives, create jobs, or assure their well being and the well being of their families. That is why one can have a Republican governor in New York state, for example, where the Democrats have a substantial edge in registered voters.
People also don't always telegraph their ballot punches. In fact, it is surprising that the snapshots of the electorate taken during polls is often as accurate as they prove to be on election day, because increasingly more people refuse to respond to pollsters' questions.
The strength of party registrations can have an impact on all elections in a state, but more important is the popularity of a lead statewide candidate regardless of party. Thus, in New York, a popular Republican Gov. George Pataki might help Republican incumbent Sen. Alfonse D'Amato in his race with Democratic challenger Rep. Charles Schumer. Conversely in California, the weaker position of Attorney General Dan Lungren, the Republican candidate for governor, could make it harder for the Republican challenger Matthew Fong to unseat Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer.
Local issues as well as state referendums and initiatives can also help push the vote for or against a candidate. Single issues like the right to bear arms, abortion, taxes, health care, etc., can also affect the outcome of a race, but rarely account for more than a fragment of the total outcome. They seldom account for more than 10% of the vote, usually only 3 or 4%. But in a close race, that may be all that one candidate or the other needs.Initiatives and Referendums
There are such referendum questions on the ballots of many states this year, some of them directly impacting the right to keep and bear arms, others hunting, an a few more tangentially related to the readers of Gun Week. In Florida, voters are being asked to approve Amendment 12 to change the state constitution in order to let counties put their own limits on gun sales. In Wisconsin, voters will decide Question 2, whether the state will join the majority that guarantee their citizens a right to keep and bear arms.
In Ohio, voters are being asked in Issue 1 to ban dove hunting as a scientific and successful game management tool. In Alaska, Measure 9 is an initiative that seeks to ban the use of snares for trapping wolves, and prohibits the sale of snared wolf pelts. In California, Proposition 4 is an initiative that would ban the use of traps to harvest fur for recreation or commerce, and bans the use of poison for predator and other animal control. In Minnesota, Question 2 would amend the state constitution to provide protection for hunting and fishing as managed by law for the public good. And in Utah, Proposition 5 would put the brakes on voter-inspired initiatives by requiring a greater number of signatures distributed across the state under more balanced rules.
All of these ballot questions are important in themselves, but the intensity of the support or opposition will decide the results. And that intensity can help determine the results of other races. If gunowners and hunters turn out in large numbers to support or oppose these initiatives and referendums, they may help other candidates they like, regardless of the party nomination. On the other hand, the opposite is also true.
There are a lot of key races around the country; some of the most important are gubernatorial contests. The reasons for this have a lot to do with state issues, or course. But there is also an important federal dimension. Governors elected this year will help decide the reapportionment of US House districts following the year 2000 census. In California, which is expected to gain even greater representation in the House of Representatives during the next decade, the governor's race is critical. Of course, especially to gunowners, so too is the outcome of the Boxer-Fong contest. Fong may not be the most pro-gun candidate anyone could want in the Senate, but Boxer certainly is one of the most anti-gun of the current crop.
Other key match-ups include the Poshard-Ryan governor's race in Illinois and that state's Moseley-Braun and Ryan contest for the Senate. In New York, of course, the prince of anti-gunners, Schumer, is trying to defeat a mostly pro-gun D'Amato, and there are friends and foe in other states where the polls show the races are close.
The Republicans would like to gain more seats in the Senate and House, and it looked like they might do so. Then the Clinton factor kicked in. Now, no one is sure.
In early October-three weeks before the election-Associated Press reported that polls were indicating that there may be a tide turning toward the Democrats.
AP claimed that Americans say they disapprove by a 2-to-1 margin, 62% to 31%, of the way Republicans are investigating President Clinton's conduct. And they said the polls show a growing number who say they trust Clinton more than the Republicans to deal with the nation's problems.
But Republican politicians say that pursuing the impeachment inquiry appeals to their party's voter base while, candidates talking about issues at the district level will appeal to crucial swing voters.
"My sense of the polling data is that the more knowledgeable people are about the (investigation's) details, the more likely they are to vote Republican," said Rep. John Linder of Georgia, chairman of the Republican National Congressional Committee.
Democrats, sensing a shift in public sentiment after two gloomy months, say they have renewed hopes about the Nov. 3 congressional elections.
The Washington Post poll released on Oct. 12 indicates more than half of registered voters, 51%, say they would vote for a Democrat in November's congressional elections and 42% say they would support a Republican.
The race among people likely to vote remains close, according to the poll. Some believe that this may be attributable to the Clinton factor. Others tend to discount the Clinton impeachment issue.
No matter. There will be close races for governor, for senators, for representatives and for members of the state legislature in most states. Close races are usually decided by the candidates who can turn out the vote.
Polls are just brief glimpses in time. The public may say one thing, but then not all of the public will actually go out and vote on election day.
The people who actually cast their ballot are the ones who decide the outcome of the elections. And the voters with the greatest passion about the issues, the candidates and the parties will provide the winners' edge.
That's what intensity is: passion-for people, issues and the nation.
The New Gun Week is published three times a month by the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) on the 1st, 10th, and 20th. Hindsight is a commentary written by SAF President and Gun Week Executive Editor Joseph P. Tartaro. This commentary may be reprinted so long as credit is given to the author and the publication. For more information or to subscribe, write Gun Week, PO Box 488, Buffalo, NY 14209, or call 716-885-6408 Monday through Friday 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. EST, or inquire on Compuserve to John Krull, Production manager-JohnSAF@Compuserve.com or gunweeksaf@broadviewnet.netAlso, check out the New Gun Week at http://www.GunWeek.com